Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Featherweight: Dan Ige (+164) vs. Melquizael Costa (-215)
Best Win for Ige? Edson Barboza For Costa? Julian Erosa
Current Streak: Ige lost his last bout, whereas Costa has won five straight
X-Factor: Costa is fighting for the fifth time in 12 months
How these two match up: This is clearly the second best matchup on the card.
Ige has been in the cage with a “Who’s Who” of the Featherweight division. The hard-nosed Hawaiian has serious power in both hands and a nasty top game, both of which have produced some nasty finishes. He’s skilled everywhere though not quite elite anywhere, which makes him a continually tough out for contenders and prospects alike.
Costa’s 2025, meanwhile, was an incredible year that brought him from undercard nobody to rising contender, scoring four very entertaining and high quality victories. The Brazilian is a slick distance kickboxer with punishing kicks, mean clinch work, and an underrated wrestling game that has thus far held up very well.
Historically, Ige’s great problem is that he’s a huge puncher who fights like a kickboxer. He tends to hang back at distance and rely on shifting or offbeat combinations to close distance despite standing at 5’7.” Given his power and durability, a strategy more akin to Ilia Topuria would likely pay off greater dividends: consistent pressure and attempts to create boxing exchanges.
At 34 years of age, Ige is unlikely to totally change his whole style now, so that means he’ll be stuck eating kicks. Costa does really good work blasting that left leg frequently and then timing opponents when they try to come forward, so he’s well-equipped to give Ige real trouble here.
So long as he stays wary of that right hand, it should be a clean win for “The Dalmatian.”
Prediction: Costa via decision
Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac (+124) vs. Ante Delija (-160)
Best Win for Spivac? Derrick Lewis For Delija? Marcin Tybura
Current Streak: Spivac has lost two in a row, whereas Delija lost his last bout
X-Factor: Spivac is a bit fragile by Heavyweight standards
How these two match up: Unlike recent Heavyweight displays, this should actually be pretty good!
Spivac is more technical, but less powerful, than the average big man. He’s a really slick clinch wrestler with great throws and trips, and he’s a consistent finishing threat on the canvas. On the feet, he’s developed a nice jab and … not much else. At 31 years of age, there’s still hope that Spivac can put it all together and contend, but he’s not quite there yet.
Delija, on the other hand, is a more straightforward slugger. The Croatian is a big Heavyweight with fast hands who puts together powerful combinations, which has resulted in 13 wins via knockout. He’ll wrestle occasionally, but “Walking Trouble” is very much a kill-or-be-killed puncher who lives and dies in the pocket.
Spivac fights are easy to predict until he reaches a certain level of competition. He steamrolls the unranked guys, but once we’re talking about athletic men who hit hard and know the basics of takedown defense, it’s much more of a crapshoot. Delija fulfills that description, but he’s not nearly as good as the Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Ciryl Gane or Jailton Almeida — the three men to most recently defeat Spivac.
On the whole, I would argue Spivac is the better fighter, but unfortunately the matchup doesn’t necessarily favor him. Delija tends to win or lose via knockout, and Spivac doesn’t knockout opponents. He’s going to have a tough time dragging Delija down or scaring him off early, meaning he’ll be vulnerable to the early blitz. Unless Spivac can jab his way into an extended fight, there’s a strong possibility he gets blown out of the water quickly.
At Heavyweight, a quick knockout is often the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Delija via knockout
Welterweight: Jacobe Smith (-310) vs. Josiah Harrell (+230)
Best Win for Smith? Niko Price For Harrell? Bekmyrza Dosmatov
Current Streak: Smith is 2-0 inside the UFC, while Harrell debuts at 11-0
X-Factor: Harrell debuts on very short-notice
How these two match up: A pair of young and talented Welterweights will throw down!
There’s a lot of upside to Smith, who very much appears to be a bluechip prospect. A collegiate wrestler with knockout power in his hands, Smith moves fluidly and is putting together the pieces very well despite being young in his career. Harrell has a wrestling background as well, and he’s stopped six opponents via strikes as a professional.
What we have here is a pair of good wrestlers who can throw heavy leather, which is almost always a recipe for good fun. Between the two, however, Smith feels like the man with the higher ceiling. He’s the more accomplished wrestler, as well as being taller and longer. Given that he’s also had a full fight camp to prepare for his third UFC fight, the advantages start to add up for “Cobe.”
Harrell could make it interesting if he finds his way inside and builds combinations, but that’s going to be difficult to without giving up takedowns in the process.
Prediction: Smith via decision
Middleweight: Michel Pereira (-156) vs. Zachary Reese (+122)
Best Win for Pereira? Michal Oleksiejczuk For Reese? Dusko Todorovic
Current Streak: Pereira has lost three in a row, whereas Reese is unbeaten in his last three
X-Factor: Pereira is a mess, Reese gets finished quick sometimes
How these two match up: Expect something weird.
Pereira is a bizarre fighter who relies on strength and explosiveness to overwhelm his opponents before they settle into the fight. He starts quick, hits hard and ideally heads home early. He doesn’t have a great gas tank nor remarkable durability, but Pereira bas still managed to spark some decent opposition. Meanwhile, Reese has been fairly unremarkable seven fights into his UFC career. He’s been sparked a couple times, but the “Savage” from Houston has also shown some good Southpaw kickboxing and a bit of grit to take home some hard-fought decisions.
There are two very obvious directions this fight could go. On one hand, Pereira could just steamroll Reese in the first couple minutes, which has happened to Reese twice now. He’s the more experienced man and is great at exploding out of the gate. Conversely, Pereira is on a downward trend, and he’s accustomed to being bigger than his opponents — that won’t be the case against 6’4” Reese.
I’ll be honest: I don’t trust Pereira at all anymore, not after the Abus Magomedov shenanigans that saw him barely throw strikes for 15 minutes. I may not be particularly high on Reese, but he’s big, hits hard and is tough. I at least trust that he’ll try to win, something I can no longer say about Pereira after his recent performances.
