Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic will go to war this weekend (Sat., Feb. 21, 2026) inside Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, for UFC Houston.
It’s fair to say Neal has seen his share of trouble both in and outside the UFC’s Octagon. While competing against the very best of the best, Neal also nearly died from septic shock in 2020, and he recently revealed a continual battle with addiction. At 35 years of age, Neal is still a top-ranked Welterweight but could really use a victory to regain solid footing in the division. Medic, conversely, has yet to prove himself an elite Welterweight after nine UFC bouts. Fortunately, he has absolutely proven himself a top action fighter, having never seen the judges’ scorecards in victory or defeat. Hell, his last three bouts lasted a combined total of 2:37 — Medic clearly doesn’t like to keep anybody waiting!
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Neal Vs. Medic Betting Odds
- Geoff Neal victory: -230
- Geoff Neal via TKO/KO/DQ: -130
- Geoff Neal via submission: +1400
- Geoff Neal via decision: +800
- Uros Medic victory: +176
- Uros Medic via TKO/KO/DQ: +250
- Uros Medic via submission: +2200
- Uros Medic via decision: +1200
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Neal Wins
Neal is a tricky and powerful Southpaw. He likes to use his footwork to draw his opponents into heavy combinations, taking angles before going on the offensive. At the same time, he has a great left head kick, which pairs well with the threat of his dangerous left hand.
Medic is a dangerous threat of Neal’s composure, which should be a skill honed by all his previous battles with top-notch strikers. “The Doctor” comes into his fights guns blazing, firing full power shots with good accuracy. This throws a lot of fighters off, as most prefer to settle into the fight and get a sense of timing before jumping into the fray.
Medic catches a lot of foes cold, and Neal doesn’t want to be the latest victim.
A bit of footwork goes a long way, fortunately. Neal already moves well, and he doesn’t have to exchange in the opening couple minutes when Medic is so dangerous. Instead, he can let some of that nervous energy dissipate, at which point the fight becomes more of a technical exchange that favors Neal. If Medic continues to push the pedal through the floor, his aggression will fatigue him and grant Neal counter opportunities.
How Medic Wins
There’s a lot to like about Medic’s game, as the striker has some real craft supporting his raw aggression. Tall and long for the division, Medic has a sneaky habit of catching his opponents with uppercuts and hiding head kicks behind his punches, making him dangerous in every single exchange.
All 12 of his pro wins come via knockout or submission.
Medic’s primary key to victory is to avoid over-extending and reaching for Neal. Generally, it’s really bad news when the longer fighter is falling forward trying to hit their shorter opponent — that’s a recipe for easy and powerful counter connections. Instead, Medic should be focusing on cutting off the cage and hitting Neal with his longest weapons like the jab, left straight, and high kicks.
Between the two, Medic looks to be more comfortable in the pocket. If he can force Neal to set his feet and trade rather than burst in, extended trades may end up favoring the Serbian “Doctor.” Similarly, putting Neal on the fence and forcing him to fight his way off could create a path for that left hand to find the mark.
Neal vs. Medic Prediction
The question here is whether or not Neal has lost a step after losing three of his last four. At 35 years of age, suffering a bad knockout loss for the first time in nearly a decade is concerning, evidence that his athletic prime may be ending. One way or another, Medic will quickly put Neal to the test and determine if he still has the required durability to be a high level UFC Welterweight.
On the flip side, Medic is there to be hit as well. Neal has proven in the past that he can take a beating and return fire in kind, whereas Medic tends to crumble if the finish doesn’t materialize. He cannot help but take risks and push the action, and Neal absolutely has the experience to punish that eagerness.
Ultimately, I’ll side with Neal because of the strength of competition. He hasn’t looked washed in any of his defeats; he’s just been fighting the best of the best, which we absolutely cannot say about Medic.
