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Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC Houston betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

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ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – OCTOBER 26: Geoff Neal prepares to face Rafael Dos Anjos of Brazil in a welterweight fight during the UFC 308 event at Etihad Arena on October 26, 2024 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

UFC Houston is less than 24 hours away …

It all goes in “Space City” this weekend (Sat., Feb. 21, 2026) inside the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. In the main event, former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight champion Sean Strickland returns to action against surging title contender Anthony Hernandez

Last event’s recap: Apparently, patient Michal Oleksiejczuk is a real thing — Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault did not end under 1.5.

Let’s keep rolling below:

Here’s why:

This fight is not built for scorecards. Medic has never gone to the judges in his professional career — win or lose. Every single one of his bouts has ended inside the distance. That alone tells you the type of chaos we’re dealing with.

But whenever Medic has taken a clear step up in competition, he’s fallen short. He was finished by Jalin Turner, knocked out by Punahele Soriano (watch highlights), and submitted by Myktybek Orolbai. When the power and athleticism match his own, the defensive gaps show.

Neal, meanwhile, is coming off a knockout loss to Carlos Prates, and yes — he’s looked rough lately. But context matters. Neal has openly discussed battling drug addiction over the past five years and is now sober. If even a glimpse of the pre-2020 Neal shows up — the version that flatlined fighters and outgunned elite strikers — he wins this matchup nearly every time.

Stylistically, this is a fire-fight waiting to happen. Neal carries legitimate one-punch power, especially with his straight left, and he’s historically been far more composed in the pocket than Medic. The betting line reflects it: the market expects violence. Neal has 10 career knockouts and has consistently fought ranked and elite competition, unlike Medic.

Medic hits hard, but he’s hittable.

If this turns into a mid-cage exchange — and it likely will — Neal’s tighter fundamentals and experience edge should produce the cleaner, fight-ending shot.

What could go wrong?

Medic is wild and fearless. Neal is coming off a stoppage loss, which always raises durability questions. If Medic lands first in one of those chaotic exchanges, this ticket could burn quickly. And given that neither man fights cautiously, variance is high.

Still, in a matchup built for brutality, Neal by knockout (-135) feels like the sharp side at UFC Houston.

  • Geoff Neal To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: -135
  • Geoff Neal To Win By Submission: +1400
  • Geoff Neal To Win By Decision: +800
  • Uros Medic To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +225
  • Uros Medic by Submission: +2000
  • Uros Medic To Win By Decision: +1200
Upfront Tony
Upfront Tony
Senior Editor, CEO, Black Belt

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