This weekend (Sat., Feb. 28, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico for UFC Mexico City. I don’t want to be too much of a Debbie Downer, but this card is certified NOT GOOD in terms of quality UFC fighters. Like any fight fan with taste, I love former Flyweight king Brandon Moreno, but Lone’er Kavanagh doesn’t really deserve to be in the cage opposite him after getting knocked cold by Charles Johnson last time out. The rest of the card drops off in name quality severely after the top three bouts, which is unfortunate. On the bright side, much of the card is made up of relatively unknown Mexican prospects who we’ll be trusting to deliver the action, and there are worse bets in combat sports! From top-to-bottom, a lot of these bouts feature very wide odds and major underdogs, so hopefully we’ll get a couple serious upsets or at least wild finishes.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:
Bantamweight: Marlon Vera (+220) vs. David Martinez (-295)
Best Win for Vera? Sean O’Malley For Martinez? Rob Font
Current Streak: Vera has lost three in a row, whereas Martinez is 2-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Vera looks a bit shopworn lately
How these two match up: Sadly, “Chito” fights haven’t been very fun lately.
It feels like Vera has largely been figured out. Despite nasty kicks, sharp straight punches, and excellent jiu-jitsu, the contender from Ecuador has lost four of five. He just can’t kick it into high gear, and despite his natural punching power, this is still the Bantamweight division where volume wins the day. Repeatedly placing himself in positions where he must score a stoppage to win is no longer working.
On the flip side, Martinez is still a new face in the UFC’s Octagon, but the multiple-time Combate Global champ is looking the part of a future contender so far. Quick and athletic, Martinez is a high-volume and rangy kickboxer who does real damage with his punishing offense.
On one hand, this is a definite step up from Martinez, who showed moments of vulnerability against Font. His kickboxing is more reliant on athleticism and flair than process, which could be an issue against a powerful veteran like Vera. Conversely, he throws way more strikes than Vera and is quite mobile. Unless Vera really takes the initiative to cut the cage and put together his combinations, Martinez is almost certain to win the numbers game.
Given Vera is 33 years old and 16 years deep into his pro career, I’m not expecting him to suddenly figure out the issue that has played his career. Maybe he clips Martinez with that perfect shot, but knocking out athletic 27-year-old talents is no easy task. More likely, he scores big a couple times but is otherwise outpointed, resulting in another angry “Chito” outburst at the judges.
In fact, there will only be one man to blame.
Prediction: Martinez via decision
Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber (-520) vs. King Green (+350)
Best Win for Zellhuber? Francisco Prado For Green? Grant Dawson
Current Streak: Zellhuber has lost two straight, whereas Green won his last bout
X-Factor: Green has slowed in the last couple years
How these two match up: These odds are disrespectful and weird.
Twice now, Zellhuber has come up short as a major favorite. The 26-year-old Southpaw has impressive quickness and powerful kicks, but at some point the odds makers have to acknowledge that he’s 3-3 in the UFC, right? He’s hittable in the pocket and despite his youth, he’s already been fighting professionally for a decade, so I’m not sure it’s reasonable to expect a major improvement overnight.
Conversely, Green is definitely past his best. His reactions have slowed a little bit, and he’s not shrugging off huge blows anymore (two knockout losses in his last five fights). Simultaneously, Green is still quick as hell with his own punches, and when he’s able to dial in his timing without getting blasted remains a very slick and experienced boxer.
As much as I would love to pick the older underdog versus the overhyped youngster, I do have to acknowledge that this is a difficult style match up for Green. King Green does his best work against fighters looking to close the distance on him, as Green can pivot off and slip shots while slamming home interrupting jabs and 1-2s. All his biggest lands typically come on the counter, whereas Zellhuber is a lanky kicker with no incentive to press. Green’s quickness is less valuable when he has to sprint into combos to close distance — it all works better the other way around.
There’s also the fact that Zellhuber is a leftie, which complicates Green’s Philly shell-adjacent style of defense. He’ll have to be very careful that a left cross-left high kick doesn’t catch him slipping into the latter blow, and the threat of the open side kick will affect his head movement even it doesn’t land.
I can imagine Green finishing strong, but an early high kick or losing on the cards feels more likely.
Prediction: Zellhuber via decision
Flyweight: Edgar Chairez (-295) vs. Felipe Bunes (+220)
Best Win for Chairez? CJ Vergara For Bunes? Jose Johnson
Current Streak: Chairez won his last bout, whereas Bunes lost his most recent fight
X-Factor: Both men are still finding their footing at 125 pounds
How these two match up: This should be a good scrap.
Chairez might be one of the most underrated men in the division despite his 2-2 (1) UFC record. It’s important to remember that “Puro Chicali” has only lost to Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira — the two best young fighters in the division — and he gave both very difficult fights! Otherwise, he’s finished his UFC opposition, showing powerful punches and slick jiu-jitsu. Bunes also had the misfortune of running into Joshua Van and an overweight Rafael Estevam, making it more difficult to get a read on his overall skill.
He’s definitely a talented grappler first and foremost.
It’s hard not to favor Chairez here. He’s faced a better class of competition and really seems to be improving fight-to-fight. Both men are skilled on the canvas, but Chairez feels like the stronger fighter more likely to end up in top position. Plus, he’s the heavier hitter, so he generally appears to have an advantage wherever the fight goes unless Bunes reveals a surprising depth to his wrestling.
More likely, Chairez cracks him and jumps the back for another submission finish.
Prediction: Chairez via submission
Flyweight: Imanol Rodriguez (-430) vs. Kevin Borjas (+300)
Best Win for Rodriguez? Roque Conceição For Borjas? Ronaldo Rodriguez
Current Streak: Rodriguez debuts at 6-0, while Borjas lost his last bout
X-Factor: Rodriguez is still quite green
How these two match up: Once again, I believe the Flyweights can be trusted to deliver a good fight.
Rodriguez, 26, is a very solid prospect. He made his name known on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), very nearly beating eventual champion (and current contender) Jospeh Morales. An obvious athletic talent, Rodriguez has serious power in his hands and is quite tough to hold down. He’s still young in his career, but the potential is clear.
Borjas, conversely, has looked quite good in just one of his four UFC fights. Admittedly, his trio of losses come to very talented opposition. In his sole win, Borjas put a serious pace on “Lazy Boy” to upset the prospect, throwing punches-in-bunches to wear down his foe. In his losses, Borjas has struggled to build volume either because of range or takedowns.
Maybe Borjas can rise to the occasion like he did versus “Lazy Boy,” but it’s hard to argue his case beforehand. Rodriguez feels like the much more fluid and dynamic striker, and he’s not going to have to try particularly hard to keep this fight standing. The odds are wide for a reason, and I’m expecting Rodriguez to maintain his 100% finishing ratio.
Prediction: Rodriguez via knockout
Bantamweight: Santiago Luna (-480) vs. Angel Pacheco (+330)
Best Win for Luna? Quang Le For Pacheco? Vilson Ndregjoni
Current Streak: Luna is 1-0 in the UFC, whereas Pacheco has lost two straight
X-Factor: Luna is very athletic
How these two match up: This feels like a scheduled execution.
Luna didn’t fight particularly great competition on the regional scene prior to his signing, but it’s still easy to understand why the promotion picked him up. At 21 years of age, “Borderboy” brings a highly accomplished wrestling background into the cage with him, and he’s already learned how to throw absolute heat to accompany his clinch takedowns.
Speed and power are the names of his game.
Pacheco, sadly, has yet to find much success inside the Octagon, where he’s been out-struck and out-wrestled in both of his appearances. He’s an aggressive and high-volume striker who doesn’t necessarily have the head movement or takedown defense to back up those traits. Worse yet, Pacheco is 12 years older than his opponent despite having just a couple more professional bouts worth of experience.
Clearly, the UFC would like to build Luna into a star in Mexico, and this kind of matchmaking will help make it happen. Pacheco cannot match Luna’s raw firepower, nor can he stop the shot even if he starts building any kind of success on the feet. He’s outgunned and out-skilled, so he’ll need some kind of miraculous connection or utter collapse on the part of Luna if he’s to escape Mexico with his first UFC win.
Not likely.
