UFC Mexico City is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Feb. 2026) inside Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. In the main event, former two-time Flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno, returns home to headline in front of a rabid crowd, taking on unranked up-and-coming prospect, Lone’er Kavanagh, in short notice 125-pound showdown.
Last event’s recap: I was dead wrong about Geoff Neal being too much for Uros Medic, as he got flatlined in the first round (watch highlights).
I desperately need to get UFC Mexico City’s Weekend Lock correct, so let’s keep rolling below:
In a fight that feels strangely rushed from a matchmaking standpoint, I’m locking in Moreno on the moneyline (-210).
For what it’s worth, I almost snagged Santiago Luna by knockout at +130, but my props have not been hitting obviously, so I passed.
Here’s why:
This is a weird one. Moreno is coming off a stoppage loss to Tatsuro Taira, who is now fighting for the title, and yet the promotion turns around and matches him with a relatively inexperienced up-and-comer (at least inside the Octagon).
Let’s not overthink this.
Moreno has literally triple the professional experience of Kavanagh. He’s fought championship rounds. He’s headlined major pay-per-view (PPV) events. He’s been through five-round wars with the best Flyweights on the planet. Even in defeat against Taira, Moreno didn’t look washed — he looked like he ran into an elite, ascending title contender who had way better grappling.
I do not believe he’s lost a step badly enough to drop a fight like this.
Moreno’s pace, durability and ability to mix striking with opportunistic grappling should overwhelm a fighter who hasn’t seen this level of intensity before. Add in the Mexico City crowd and altitude factor, and the edge tilts even further toward the proven veteran.
Simply put: experience matters. And Moreno has it in spades.
What could go wrong?
Kavanagh is young, hungry and fearless — sometimes that’s dangerous. If Moreno is truly beginning to decline, or if the emotional pressure of competing at home tightens him up, an upset isn’t impossible. Prospects break through eventually.
But, right now? This feels like Moreno’s fight to lose. At -210, the former champion is the safest side on UFC Mexico City’s card.
- Brandon Moreno To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +400
- Brandon Moreno To Win By Submission: +330
- Brandon Moreno To Win By Decision: +175
- Lone’er Kavanagh To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +550
- Lone’er Kavanagh by Submission: +3000
- Lone’er Kavanagh To Win By Decision: +350
