UFC 326’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

UFC 326 is live this weekend (Sat., March. 7, 2026) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV and broadcast on Paramount+. This is the second PLE of the Paramount+ era and there’s a belt on the line, sorta.

The main event is Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira 2 for Holloway’s BMF title. He first earned that novelty belt with a win over Dustin Poirier. This is the first time the BMF belt has ever been defended.

UFC 326’s main card also has Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr., Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson and Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira.

The featured “Prelim” this weekend is Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long. The “Prelims” also have hot prospect Donte Johnson meeting Cody Brundage and Sumudaerji meeting Jesus Aguilar.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 326 Main Card Money Line Odds

Max Holloway (-230) vs. Charles Oliveira (+175)

These two first met at UFC Fight Night 74 in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan in 2015. That fight barely got started before Oliveira went down with a freak injury (later described as an injury to his esophagus).

This is a really fun fight and I have genuine fondness for both these men and how they fight. Their results have been quite similar over the last few years and I think they are both at about the same point in their careers. Right now, they are made for ‘legacy fights’, which is exactly what this one is.

My initial feeling is that this will look a bit like Holloway vs. Poirier, with Holloway able to land often and heavier than usual (perhaps as a result of being at Lightweight). Holloway’s late surge of KO power at this weight has me thinking the finish might be on the table for him.

Oliveira will always fancy himself on the feet, despite how much better he is on the ground against pretty much everyone other than a select few (Islam Makhachev, Arman Tsarukyan…). Oliveira rarely fights with the intent of making a bout a grappling contest. He uses it in emergencies, it seems. But against elite fighters (and with his age getting up there), he might not be conscious long enough to hit that emergency button anymore.

So I like Holloway in this fight. I’m not totally scared off the moneyline with those odds, but there are some better options out there.

Holloway -5.5 at -135 is very attractive to me, since I think Holloway is capable of a finish. Oliveira plus the points is +100.

The round total is 2.5. The over is -175 and the under is +135. I like the over there, since I think Holloway will be dictating the pace in this fight and he’s a slow burn. I’ll go with the over as my best bet, despite the odds being shorter than the point spread. This way I’m covered if Oliveira surprises me.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-175)

Caio Borralho (-290) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+235)

Borralho lost his shot at UFC Middleweight contender status after a unanimous decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov in September. That loss broke his sixteen fight winning streak (with seven of those wins coming inside the Octagon). Prior to that loss he took a decision over Jared Cannonier and knocked out Paul Craig.

This moneyline on RDR has set a lot of tongues wagging. He actually opened at +180, so the only reason his odds are this long is because so much of the public is betting on Borralho. I’m with the public on this one.

I think Borralho is a bad match-up for de Ridder. Borralho is great on the ground and he can handle himself on the feet. De Ridder has, historically, been very limited on the feet. His flashy knees on Nickal and Whittaker are doing a lot to help us forget that.

De Ridder will have some size advantage over the Brazilian. He’s taller and has three inches of reach. I don’t know if he’s stronger, though. Borralho is very solid.

I’m leaning Borralho here, but I can’t take him on the moneyline due to how short he is. The point spread interests me. That’s Borralho -3.5. at -135. Borralho came into the UFC as a concrete blanket, remember. So he’s very good at exhausting opponents. If de Ridder’s fading against Allen was a sign of his conditioning, then we might see de Ridder getting drained on the canvas and then unable to put up much of a fight. That might lead to some very lopsided scorecards or a late finish.

The round total is 2.5. The over is -188 and the under is +145. I like the over, since Borralho is not an elite finisher. I’ll take that, to cover me just in case de Ridder is able to earn a round or two.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-188)

Rob Font (+180) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (-218)

Font has been serving as a gatekeeper at Bantamweight for a little while now. While performing this duty he shut the gate on both Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto. David Martinez was able to sneak through, though. The veteran is now 12-8 in UFC action.

With how well Font has fought most the prospects he’s faced and with how low I am on Rosas as a top prospect, this has me looking at the underdog here.

The big question is whether Font can stay on his feet. Historically, he’s had issues with that. His takedown defense is just 43 percent. Matsumoto got him down seven times on ten attempts. Phillips got him down on four of five attempts. Font, of course, won all those fights. But neither of those opponents had the submission threat that Rosas Jr. has.

Font has only been submitted once in his career. That was a guillotine from Pedro Munoz in 2017. He is turning 39 in three months, though. So that historic toughness is probably going to drop off in a number of ways.

I have a feeling that Font might still have enough to make it through three rounds with Rosas Jr. And part of that is because Rosas Jr. has under-performed on occasion and given us rather dull decisions including his last two against Vince Morales and Aoriqileng.

Over 2.5 rounds is -238. I’ll got with Fight to go the Distance for a little more value.

Best bet: Fight to go the distance – Yes (-200)

Drew Dober (+102) vs. Michael Johnson (-122)

There’s no way this goes to a decision, right? I think it’s just a matter of guessing when someone gets face planted. Given Dober’s recent run, I feel like he’s more likely to be the one laying on the canvas, but we’ve seen Johnson get starched plenty of times before.

The round total is 1.5. I’m surprised to see the under at plus money (+140). The over is -180. Other props that play towards this fight ending with strikes are Exact Method of Victory (KO/TKO) at -195 and Fight to go the Distance – No at -215.

I’m torn between the under and the Johnson moneyline. There’s an alternate round total available with under 2.5 rounds for -160. I’ll take that, since I think Johnson is more likely to get the finish through accumulation instead of one big shot.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-160)

Gregory Rodrigues (-198) vs. Bruno Ferreira (+164)

Ferreira was booked to fight Paulo Costa at this event. That’s the kind of booking you earn with a convincing win over Marvin Vettori (despite coming in heavy). The Vettori win was Ferreira’s third win in a row. He won his previous fights, against Jackson McVey and Armen Petrosyan, by armbar. He’s now 6-2 in UFC and 15-2 overall.

This is an interesting fight. Rodrigues likely jumped at the opportunity to avenge a loss. And I think he might do it. After all, it is hard to beat someone twice in MMA

I think both fighters have improved since their first meeting. But I also think there’s more chance that Rodrigues makes adjustments for this fight based on what happened there. Ferreira seems to fight in one mode, that being Tasmanian Devil mode. Rodrigues is capable of changing things up and going with a more wrestler forward approach. Ferreira is very good on the ground and, in fact, very good off his back, but I don’t think Rodrigues is going to be open for armbars.

No matter what happens, though, it’s going to be fun. And I think a finish is coming. That’s hardly a shocking statement, though. Ferreira has only been to a decision once; his last fight against Vettori. Rodrigues has been to a decision a couple of times lately, with wins over Roman Kopylov and Christian Leroy Duncan.

The round total is 1.5. I think that’s low given the durability of Rodrigues and how I think he might look to ground and hold Ferreira early on. I’ll take the over.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110)

UFC 326 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Cody Garbrandt (+124) vs. Xiao Long (-148)

Garbrandt is currently on a two fight losing streak having dropped a unanimous decision to Raoni Barcelos last June and been submitted by Deiveson Figueiredo in 2024. The former Bantamweight champion’s last win was a KO over Brian Kelleher in December, 2023.

Long was unlucky to lose to You. I scored it for him, as did a few others per MMA Decisions.

I don’t know what’s wrong with Garbrandt. But I know I’m not picking him. He’s turning 35 in July and that’s not a good age to be at these lower weight classes. The punishment he’s taken in his career also makes him much older in ‘fight years’.

Xiao is 27 and fights with a lot of aggression and intensity. He also has a bit of power. His style would have been a big liability against a prime Garbrandt, but those days are gone.

Best bet: Xiao Long moneyline (-148)

Donte Johnson (-600) vs. Cody Brundage (+440)

We just saw Brundage get TKO’d by Cam Rowston at UFC 325 in January. Before that he lost a split decision to Eric McConico and fought to a draw with Mansur Abdul-Malik. Those results have helped give him the 5-7-1 1 NC record in UFC.

I’m very high on Johnson and I love that he’s given up the idea of being a 5’8” Heavyweight. That reminds me of Alexander Volkanovski fighting at Middleweight.

Johnson has a lot of explosiveness and has lots of great physical attributes. But he also seems very intelligent and composed. I love how, in his debut, he told his corner to calm down a bit and let him work. That was quite endearing. It was also acceptable given he was fighting out of a small camp. If he was doing that to Eric Nicksick, then I think that would be a problem.

I don’t know why Brundage is fighting in this spot. His manager shouldn’t be letting him go into a bout as a heavy underdog just a few months after he was battered by another top prospect.

There’s only moneyline and total rounds available at this time of writing. I’ll take the over, for some value, and my assumption that Johnson might be patient like he was against Dumas (who he finished in the second round).

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+150)

Ricky Turcios (+160) vs. Alberto Montes (-192)

Montes is coming off Contender Series, where he won in October with an anaconda choke. He’s a former Combate Global veteran with a 10-1 record.

Turcios is probably out of UFC if he loses here, despite his status as a TUF winner. Turcios didn’t look bad in the Sopaj fight. He was very aggressive and energetic, albeit a bit wild.

Montes is a legit BJJ black belt and he looks like an absolute terror on the ground, especially with front chokes. I think Turcios has suffered from some bad matchmaking a lot in his career and this will be one of those cases again. Turcios is better than people give him credit for, but I think Montes is going to put him in a lot of trouble on the ground.

And Turcios’ 44 percent takedown defense means he likely won’t be able to stop himself getting taken to the ground.

Best bet: Alberto Montes moneyline (-192)

UFC 326 Early ‘Prelims’

Cody Durden (+114) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-135)

Tumendemberel is undefeated through two cycles of Road to UFC (winning three bouts). He lost his only proper UFC bout, though, a spit decision to Carlos Hernandez. That was back in November, 2024. He’s seen fights with Hyun Sung Park and Rei Tsuruya fall through since then.

Durden has to be fighting for his UFC life here.

He’s a good wrestler, but he thinks he’s got those Canelo Hands and that has got him into trouble time and time again. I haven’t seen enough of Tumendemberel to know if he’s got the hands to make Durden pay for leaving his chin out there. Tumemdemberel seems much more focused on grappling. He might change his mind when he sees Durden’s lack of defense.

If the chances of Durden getting KO’d are lower than usual, then I think the over is the play (since these two might cancel each other out on the ground).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+110)

Sumudaerji (-245) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+200)

Sumudaerji has won two straight. Those wins are a unanimous decision over Kevin Brojas and a split decision over Mitch Raposo. Before that he dropped a decision to Charles Johnson. He’s currently 5-4 in UFC action and 18-7 as a pro.

Aguilar looked superb in his dominant decision over Luis Gurule in September. Before that he lost a unanimous decision to the still undefeated Rafael Estevam. He’s 4-2 in UFC and his other loss was to Tatsuro Taira. On the regional circuit he once submitted Edgar Chairez to defend a title.

Given how great Aguilar looked in his last fight, I was initially surprised to see him as such a big underdog in this fight (especially considering how inconsistent Sumudaerji can be). However, I pumped the brakes on Aguilar a little when I considered how out of his depth Gurule has looked in all his UFC appearances. And then there’s the size factor, too.

Sumudaerji is a size bully and he’ll be four inches taller that Aguilar. He’ll have a whopping ten inch reach advantage. That might be a record difference. Aguilar has a very short 62 inch reach. His two UFC losses are to Estevam (69 inch reach) and Taira (70 inch reach). He did get a split division over Mateus Mendonca (71 inch reach), though.

The submission threat from Aguilar does give me pause for thought, though. Remember how he beat Stewart Nicoll with guillotine as a big underdog? Six of Sumaerdaerji’s seven losses are all by submission.

I’ll play the under here to cover both if Aguilar is able to catch that long neck of Sumudaerji and if the Tibetan Eagle is able to box up Aguilar on the feet with his massive reach.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+140)

Jeong Yeong Lee (+100) vs. Gaston Bolanos (-130)

Lee has looked a little one dimensional lately, like he just wants to brawl. Bolanos is a little more versatile. He was dominated by Le last time out, though.

Lee is going to have a big size advantage in this fight, standing three inches taller and having four inches of reach. That might help him out if he wants to just swing for the fences. I think Bolanos will try ducking under those and getting a takedown. That worked on Lee last time, with Santos getting him down on six of 18 attempts.

This is a bit of a coin flip. I’m worried about how much damage Bolanos can take, though.

Best bet: Jeong Yeong Lee moneyline (+100)

Luke Fernandez (-230) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+190)

Fernandez won on Contender Series, in just 15 seconds, in October. That saw him go to 6-0. He was a champion with Cage Fury Fighting Championships. He’s also got pro grappling wins over Phil Hawes (by anaconda) and Eryk Anders. He’s 30 years-old, but only has six pro fights (he’s won them all, though).

Fernandez is a very interesting prospect, with KO power and good grappling. I think he’s been given a match-up that he’s expected to win here. However, I don’t think Bellato will be a total walk in the park. He’s an odd duck, but he’s also a pretty well rounded MMA fighter.

Fernandez is the favorite for a reason, though. I think he’s got a shot at KOing Bellato (who has only ever been stopped Vitor Petrino). Fernandez’s ground skills means he won’t need to just rely on his power punches, too, which makes him even more dangerous.

Best bet: Luke Fernandez moneyline (-230)

Rafael Tobias (-205) vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (+170)

Tobias is coming off a Contender Series win, by submission, in September. That improved his pro record to 14-1. Prior to Contender Series Tobias appeared in Fury Fighting Championships and had one fight in LFA. The LFA fight was his only loss. He was knocked out by Miguel Porto. He had just turned 20 back then.

This is an interesting match to make. It feels like Nurgozhay is being set up to fail here. He’s shown poor submission defense in the past and he’s going up against someone who has nasty submissions. I think the underwhelming Nurgozhay is going to get tapped again, this time on his way out the UFC door.

Best bet: Rafael Tobias moneyline (-205)

UFC 326 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira – Last Second Finish (+4000)

This prop is in play every time Holloway faces a fellow legend. I think there’s a good chance Holloway finishes Oliveira before the final second of round five. But if Oliveira is still in the fight, I think we can expect Holloway doing his famous point to the center with ten seconds remaining. If that happens, I think we could get a repeat of UFC 300.

This bet is actually for a last second finish on any round, though. So we’re covered if Oliveira gets a last second triangle or if Holloway is beating him up against the cage for a standing TKO, at the end of a round, too.

Three-Bet Parlay: Jesus Aguilar, Alberto Montes and Rafael Tobias (+578)

I’ve gone with three guys who have really cool submission games. Aguilar is the only underdog here. He’s done good work as an underdog in the past and Sumudaerji has been prone to submission losses. Montes and Tobias both have sick anaconda chokes and they are favorites in their fights with Nugozhay and Turcios.

Gregory Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+2500)

I think RoboCop can get his revenge against Ferreira. Ferreira carries a lot of extra weight at this division and we saw him slow down and get tired after Vettori took him deep. If he gets tired in the third round against Rodrigues, I think there’s a chance he gets stopped.

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