Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira will square off this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 323.
I cannot help but feel this excellent matchup is flying a little under the radar. Moreno is a divisional great, a multiple-time champion with quite a few Top 10 wins scattered across his resume. Though he’s also plagued by inconsistency and strange stylistic choices, Moreno is still just 31 years of age and has proven to have plenty left in the tank in his recent wins over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Moreno vs. Taira Betting Odds
- Brandon Moreno victory: +104
- Brandon Moreno via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
- Brandon Moreno via submission: +3000
- Brandon Moreno via decision: +350
- Tatsuro Taira victory: -132
- Tatsuro Taira via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
- Tatsuro Taira via submission: +1400
- Tatsuro Taira via decision: +170
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Moreno Wins
Moreno started his UFC career as a scrapper with good (but not great) takedowns and submissions. He was more of a gamer than anything else, a man who pushed the pace hard and found success by sheer force of will. In the decade or so since his UFC debut, Moreno has developed into a very slick combination boxer with the division’s best jab, and he can scramble with the absolute best of the division.
In this bout, Moreno will be playing the role of sprawl-and-brawl. Taira has a good sense of distance and nice straight punches, but his kickboxing doesn’t have the depth or variety of the former champion. Ideally, Moreno will extend the distance by working behind his jab and calf kicks then pick his moments to extend combinations when Taira isn’t in position to shoot.
Generally, Moreno should try to be on the front foot here. He can’t chase Taira and give up easy entries to his hips, but we saw Taira fade in the chaos of Royval’s pressure. Measured pressure should wear on Taira, particularly if that jab is finding the mark often.
Finally, Moreno has to punish takedown attempts. If he stuffs a Taira shot, he better break with an elbow or knee to discourage the Japanese ace from shooting again. If he can reverse his way into top position, that’s another option as well that could pay off in fatiguing the younger man.
How Taira Wins
Taira might just be the slickest back specialist in a division that includes Alexandre Pantoja — which means he could be the best in UFC, period. Taira’s transitions to the back are incredibly unique and represent the next generation of grappling, and the rest of his game is developing nicely as well.
It may sound strange to say of a grappler, but footwork is the key for Taira in this fight. In order to be the man setting the pace and finding effective entries on his takedown, Taira has to draw Moreno forward with his movement. He cannot be frantically running around nor he can stand right in front of the better boxer; Taira has to thread the needle of engaging with Moreno and pulling him into takedowns.
Holding down Moreno is another immensely difficult task. Notable great grapplers like Deiveson Figueiredo and Jussier Formiga have gotten Moreno to the canvas ,but failed to contain him for long. For Taira, the focus has to be on pinning legs and convincing Moreno to turn away in an attempt to stand, because Taira can control just about anyone if he secures the back fully.
Moreno vs. Taira Prediction
All Moreno fights are at least a little challenging to pick, because you never fully know who is going to show up. While Moreno be popping his jab, slipping punches, and throwing double left hooks … or will he obsess over the loopiest overhand since Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields the entire fight as he did in the Royval rematch? The latter will get him taken down quickly, whereas the former makes for a fascinating fight.
Ultimately, I trust Moreno’s current run and training situation to have him well-prepared for Taira’s strategy. Over the course of his career, Moreno developed into the division’s best anti-wrestler, which is the reason he did so well in the most recent Pantoja fight. Really, the great Brazilian champion was forced to brawl for long portions of the fight in order to edge the win, and I don’t think Taira has that same gritty skill set.
He’ll have to survive some bad positions, but Moreno’s output and damage should earn him a very competitive decision win.
Prediction: Moreno via decision
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