Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder will collide this weekend (Sat., March 7, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 326.
This pair of highly-ranked 185-pounders enter their co-main event booking in similar positions. Both Borralho and de Ridder could have secured a title shot in their last appearance, but they came up short to Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen respectively. Prior to those losses, both men had built up quality win streaks to emerge as players in the Middleweight title picture.
For Borralho, the de facto captain of The Fighting Nerds learned about the important of boxing at the highest level. “RDR,” meanwhile, learned that cutting massive amounts of weight and fighting elite opposition five times in a year isn’t sustainable, as his performance and gas tank versus Allen were unusually mediocre. Hopefully, one or both men will return here sharper than ever.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Borralho vs. de Ridder Betting Odds
- Caio Borralho victory: -310
- Caio Borralho via TKO/KO/DQ: +320
- Caio Borralho via submission: +700
- Caio Borralho via decision: +120
- Reinier de Ridder victory: +230
- Reinier de Ridder via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
- Reinier de Ridder via submission: +1000
- Reinier de Ridder via decision: +430
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Borralho Wins
Borralho is a grappler first and foremost. The jiu-jitsu black belt won quite a few of his early UFC bouts on the strength of his top control, and it remains his best asset. That said, he’s come a long way on the feet, developing something of a Karate-style stance to kick well on the outside. Piecing up Jared Cannonier is no easy task, and that performance served as proof that Borralho has really rounded his game.
I would like to see Borralho wrestling here. De Ridder is a great grappler himself, but it’s a simple fact that playing guard in MMA is very often a losing strategy. Like Allen, Borralho has the jiu-jitsu prowess to avoid the sweeps and submissions of his opponent, and every elbow landed further chips away a bit of that grappling threat.
That said, rushing forward is unnecessary. Nobody wants to walk into a Reinier de Ridder knee to the belly! Instead, Borralho should use his speed and footwork to land the better kicks and establish his jab. Generally, it’s quite a difficult situation when the taller man is being outworked at long distance, as they suddenly have to crash forward and look slow doing it. “RDR” is already a bit slow, so forcing him to come forward will open easy takedown opportunities.
How de Ridder Wins
De Ridder is a great example of a very effective fighter with wonky elements to their game. Standing at 6’4”, de Ridder is a massive and lanky Middleweight with spearing knees. His punches are awkward but still hard enough to be respected, and he’s a solid takedown threat in the clinch. From top or bottom, de Ridder is an excellent grappler with 13 submission wins to his credit.
Does he keep his chin way too high and throw kicks from too close? Of course, but the jank is part of the fun with “The Dutch Knight.”
De Ridder is unlikely to win a technical kickboxing bout here. Borralho’s footwork is much more fluid, and his punches come with greater snap. For de Ridder, this is all about crashing forward and making Borralho uncomfortable on the feet. “RDR” is quite good at drawing opponents into ugly wars of attrition, and he capitalizes when they make mistakes.
That’s good strategy against a clean and technical fighter like Borralho. De Ridder needs to land something painful — the best bet being that stepping knee — and get Borralho reacting badly. If Borralho takes a bad shot, that’s de Ridder’s best opportunity to gain top position and really take over the fight. On the note of grappling: de Ridder really cannot afford to waste energy and lose rounds by playing bottom. If he’s taken down, he needs to scramble back to his feet with urgency and keep the pace high.
Borralho vs. de Ridder Prediction
This feels like one of the worst possible matchups for “RDR” in the upper echelon of the Middleweight division. He’s a deeply flawed fighter, and Borralho is tactical enough to make him pay for the weaknesses that his size usually covers up. Even if Borralho does nothing but wrestle from the first bell, it feels unlikely that de Ridder is able to avoid getting stuck on bottom.
I would never fully write off de Ridder, a veteran with enough nasty weapons to change the fight in an instant. On paper, however, it looks like he’s due for a rather frustrating night at the office.
