Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight finishers Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis will go to war this weekend (Sat., Jan. 31, 2026) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia for UFC 325.
If you have a fairly recent memory of Hooker getting pummeled into paste, that’s not old age sneaking up on you — it actually happened! Just two months ago, Hooker’s face was rearranged by Arman Tsarukyan, and yet the inhumanly tough Kiwi bruiser is already back in action against another highly-touted ground fighter. Indeed, Saint Denis responded very well last year after a tough 2024. He won three straight fights in dominant finishes to reassert himself as a factor in the 155 pound division, and another high-profile victory here could fully push him back into the title picture.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Hooker vs. Saint Denis Betting Odds
- Dan Hooker victory: +250
- Dan Hooker via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
- Dan Hooker via submission: +1900
- Dan Hooker via decision: +650
- Benoit Saint Denis victory: -340
- Benoit Saint Denis via TKO/KO/DQ: +430
- Benoit Saint Denis via submission: +165
- Benoit Saint Denis via decision: +300
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Hooker Wins
Hooker is both a technical kickboxer and absolute brute. There are fights where he manages ranges wonderfully, picking apart his foes with long range weapons and then timing kill shots like his team mate Israel Adesanya. Then, there are plenty of fights (like above) where Hooker is throwing himself into the fray, more than willing to take one to land one.
For what it’s worth, he also has a tremendous guillotine choke.
Hooker’s path to victory in this fight is similar to the Arman Tsarukyan matchup two months ago. He has to weather the storm and outlast the wrestler, which is easier said than done. Against Tsarukyan, the problem wasn’t just that Tsarukyan was able to land takedowns. Really, it was the total amount of punishment absorbed on both the canvas and even the feet.
In this match, Hooker has to do a better job of defending himself on the canvas. He may be tough enough to take shots without going to sleep, but getting battered leaves him more vulnerable to submissions and less able to rally late. If he can keep his wits intact for the second half of the fight, there’s a real chance he could recreate Dustin Poirier’s success by catching a slower “BSD.”
If his eyes are swollen shut by the start of round two, that’s a much more difficult proposition.
How Saint Denis Wins
Saint Denis is a mauler. Just now entering his seventh year as a professional, France’s “God of War” has much less training experience than most of his peers. Yet, he’s able to make it work because he’s such a physical talent. He applies immense, relentless pressure on his opponents in every aspect of the game, and that breaks people at any level.
In this bout, Saint Denis’ defense and composure will be tested. He has the wrestling to impose his will and ground Hooker, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy. He has to be particularly mindful on the way in, as Hooker will be trying to catch him with knees and that aforementioned guillotine choke. If Saint Denis rushes or is too straightforward with his shot, he could find himself asleep before he even realizes what went wrong.
A little bit of craft will go a long way. Saint Denis has the speed and power to strike with Hooker for a bit, particularly if he’s on the front foot right away. Rather than shoot in the open, Saint Denis’ goal should be to land something heavy on the feet, move into the clinch and land there, then try to change levels with his takedown. He can be aggressive without rushing, and his cycle of offense is difficult to stop once he gets rolling.
Hooker vs. Saint Denis Prediction
Hooker definitely has a shot here given Saint Denis’ history of over-aggression and inability to manage his pace. He did defeat Mateusz Gamrot — an excellent wrestler — fairly recently. Saint Denis is much more similar to Tsarukyan than Gamrot, however, in that he’s such a physical force and does real damage in exchanges. I’m expecting a similar fight to Hooker vs. Tsarukyan here, particularly since Hooker never gave himself time to recover from that specific beating.
It’s not easy to jump into fight camp with an already-broken face, and I’m not expecting that gamble to pay off here.
