Following the money: UFC 326 betting line movements tracker | Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

UFC 326 is happening this weekend (Sat., Mar. 7, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, streaming live on Paramount+. The main event is Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira 2 for the “BMF” title, a gimmick belt Holloway “Blessed” won at UFC 300 against Justin Gaethje (did he ever!) and successfully defended last year against Dustin Poirier.

Our co-main for this is Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder in the Middleweight division. Rounding out the main card is Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr., Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson and Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (which is also a rematch).

The “Prelims” are headlined by the surprising match-up of Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long. UFC 326’s undercard also has some hit prospect match-ups with Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage and Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato.

UFC 326 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Max Holloway (-221 -14.7%) vs. Charles Oliveira (+175 +16.4%)

This opened with much closer odds than we have now. Holloway’s opening line was just -150, with Oliveira sitting at +130. As you can see, the public really like the reigning BMF (if there is such a thing), to come out on top in this one.

In Holloway’s last fight the public faded him, too, though not to a great degree. He opened at -130 for his trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier and closed around -122. I suspect a lot of folks were swept up with the romanticism of Poirier’s retirement fight for that one. Holloway would go on to win a pretty convincing decision there.

The public were right about Holloway in his previous two fights, though. He opened at +146 against Ilia Topuria and closed at around +245. Holloway was then finished, in a way we’ve never seen before. Before that, Holloway opened at +225 against Justin Gaethje, but the public bet him down to +160 before he landed his last second KO.

Oliveira’s last fight, with Mateusz Gamrot, was a pick ‘em. The public marginally shifted his line from -125 to -105. Do Bronx then dominated ‘Gamer’.

The public were right to fade him in the Topuria fight. He opened at +220 there but closed close to +300. And before that they right to back him against Michael Chandler. And before that they were right to fade him against Islam Makhachev. The public’s best performance on an Oliveira fight was when he fought Arman Tsarukyan. They flipped his line from a -120 favorite to a +190 underdog (32 percent shift) before Tsarukyan took a decision over him.

So the public are very good at picking Oliveira fights (better than Vegas, lately). And they seem pretty confident he’ll finish second best this weekend.

Caio Borralho (-266 -3.8%) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+209 +9.4%)

The public might have a bad taste in their mouth when it comes to de Ridder. After looking like an exciting addition to the promotion he suffered a devastating loss to Brendan Allen. That has lead to most pretty unfair ridicule for the former ONE champ. He opened at +180 here, but the public have pushed him up to +210.

The public backed him in the Allen, fight. Maybe that’s where some animosity has come from. He opened at -175 for that and closed around -240. Prior to that the public were right to back him against Robert Whittaker and before that they were way wrong to fade him against Bo Nickal (as most people were).

Borralho opened with +110 odds against Nassourdine Imavov, but closed at -125. He would then lose by decision. The public were right before that, though, backed him against Jared Cannonier and Paul Craig. Remarkably, Vegas had him at just -185 to beat Craig. The public changed that to -650, though!

Rob Font (+187 -65.5%) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (-231 +16.1%)

Wow the public did not like Vegas’ assessment of Font vs. Rosas Jr., well, some folks actually loved it because they were able jump all over Font and take him at +375. He line sunk dramatically after it opened, telling us a lot of money went in on him early. I get it, Rosas Jr. has disappointed more than he’s lived up to his uber prospect status.

The public faded Font in his last fight, where he opened as the -225 favorite against David Martinez. He would go on to lose that. The public were wrong about the Jean Matsumoto fight, too, in the opposite direction. They faded him there. They did the same thing in the Kyler Phillips’ fight, turning Font from a +185 underdog to a +375 dog. So maybe take the public’s support of Font here with a grain of salt.

This is the most doubt the public have ever shown in a Rosas Jr. fight, though. He usually sees his favorite odds shorten over fight week.

Drew Dober (-101 -30.6%) vs. Michael Johnson (-120 +16%)

We’ve seen a lot of action on this line. Dober opened as the +160 dog, but the public think he has a great chance of winning over his fellow veteran. Johnson opened as the healthy -185 favorite, but this basically becoming a pick ‘em.

Johnson had been supported by the public in his last fight, going from -200 to -225 before he wiped out Ottman Azaitar. They were right about his win over Darrius Flowers, too.

Dober had public backing in his last fight, against the unheralded Kyle Prepolec (who would have probably beaten him if not for a low blow). Dober was correctly faded for his fight with Manuel Torres, but the public were wrong to back him against Jean Silva (who wasn’t that well known at the time).

Gregory Rodrigues (-184 -8%) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+150 +8%)

The public really like Rodrigues in this fight (against a man who KO’d him early in his UFC career). He opened at -150 for this one. We saw a similar story in his fight with Roman Kopylov, which he won handily. The public were wrong to back him against Jared Cannonier. He opened at +110 but closed around -258 for that fight. That late upset TKO doesn’t seem to have affected the public’s mood on him coming into this one, though.

Ferreira got faded by the public in his fight with Marvin Vettori. That opened as a pick ‘em, but he grew to a slight underdog over fight week. He then took a decision win (his first time ever going the distance. The public faded Ferreira in his last two fights, too. They were right to do that when he lost to Abus Magomedov, but were wrong when he stopped Armen Petrosyan.

UFC 326 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Cody Garbrandt (+126 -19.5%) vs. Xiao Long (-152 +9.5%)

Garbrandt opened at +170 for this fight. That’s his longest opening odds since he fought Thomas Almeida in 2016. He KO’d Almeida that night. How things have changed in ten years, huh? The public haven’t forgotten the former champ’s exploits, though. He’s had plenty of money come in on him, making him projected to close at around +120.

That’s great news if you like Xiao!

Xiao opened at -200, but he could close at around -150. He was the underdog in his last fight, with Su Young You. He lost a decision there, but I scored it in his favor. Prior to that, while on Road to UFC, he received a lot of betting support, including when he went from a +124 underdog to a -140 favorite against Changho Lee (who he lost a split decision to).

Donte Johnson (-893 -1.3%) vs. Cody Brundage (+587 +5.4%)

Johnson is our biggest favorite on the card. I can see why. He’s looked great so far and Brundage was TKO’d two months ago. There was some interesting movement on this line, though.

Immediately after it was released it went from -800 to -500, but around March 1st it started dropping again, bringing it back to the opening line (and then some). Brundage’s line went all the way down to +375 during that spike of activity.

Ricky Turcios (+156 -13.3%) vs. Alberto Montes (-191 +5.2%)

Turcios opened as the +190 underdog, but he’s getting public support here against Montes (who is coming back after a two year hiatus). The last time the public showed a lot of support for Turicios was when he lost to Aimann Zahabi, when he opened at -185 and closed at around -220.

UFC 326 Early ‘Prelims’

Cody Durden (+126 -6.2%) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-152 +1.7%)

There’s been some up and down movement on this line. Durden opened at +140, that quickly went down at low at +110, though. It then bounced back up to +135 before then coming down to the range I have it at now. Durden has been faded a lot by the public recently (including when he went from -105 to +163 against Jose Ochoa — who then KO’d him in his home town). They like him in this fight, though!

Sumudaerji (-238 -3.2%) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+192 +2.4%)

There’s been no notable changes in this one. Sumudaerji, who will have a massive size advantage in the fight, is a pretty comfortable favorite over Jesus Aguilar. Vegas and the public are pretty in-sync with this.

Jeong Yeong Lee (-333 -6.7%) vs. Gaston Bolanos (+261 +11.4%)

Lee has seen some late activity on his line. He opened -260, but in the last few days he’s seen that start to shrink. Bolanos opened at +220.

Luke Fernandez (-233 -25.9%) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+187 +28.6%)

Fernandez is a very hot prospect. But Vegas is slow playing him here against the, let’s say, crafty Bellato. He opened as just the -125 favorite (opposite Bellato’s line of +105). However, that line fell off a cliff with public betting. Fernandez became a heavy favorite quickly. The same thing happened on Contender Series when Fernandez opened at -300 but closed at a whopping -1600.

Rafael Tobias (-202 +10.7%) vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (+164 -32.6%)

Tobias opened as the very big -300 favorite. But the public aren’t sure about that. A lot of money has come in on Nurgozhay (who looked awful in his two only UFC appearances). That means Tobias could end up at just -175 odds by fight time.

UFC 326 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 326:

• Rob Font: From +375 underdog to a +189 underdog (-64.4%) (c)
• Diyar Nurgozhay: From +250 underdog to a +164 underdog (-32.6%) (C)
• Drew Dober: From +160 underdog to -102 favorite (-31.3%) (B)
• Rodolfo Bellato: From +105 underdog to a +187 underdog (+28.6%) (A)
• Luke Fernandez: From -125 favorite to a -233 favorite (-25.9%) (E)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 8-51.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 14-11.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 4-10.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-5.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 5-3.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.

UFC 326 Best Underdogs Bets

Thankfully this card actually has some interesting underdogs, unlike the last event where it was heavy favorite after heavy favorite. I think Durden’s reputation for being stopped has caught up to him. But, I don’t know if an 0-1 UFC fighter (not counting Road to UFC) is going to be that much of a threat to him. He and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel are both wrestlers, too, so I’m leaning toward Durden having enough experience and talent to get by the relative newcomer.

I also quite like Jesus Aguilar and think his submissions might give the long limbed Sumudearji some issues.

Enough about me, though. What do you think? Tell me your favorite dogs on this card.

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