UFC 326 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., March 7, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former Featherweight champion, Max Holloway, collides with former Lightweight kingpin, Charles Oliveira, for the “BMF” in a 155-pound showdown that should be incredible.
Last event’s recap: I just cannot win this year, it appears, as I took Brandon Moreno to defeat Lone’er Kavanagh … and he sure didn’t. In fact, he got dominated (and hospitalized).
Well, let’s keep rolling below:
I’m not getting cute this week, taking Holloway’s moneyline at -220 (and, at least, Alexander Volkanovski agrees with me).
Here’s why:
Holloway has looked outstanding in his move up to Lightweight. His striking is technical, precise and relentless as always. In addition, he’s comfortable setting the pace across five rounds. Oliveira, on the other hand, is wild and aggressive — dangerous when he lands a submission, but predictable in his patterns. Holloway’s durability and fight IQ are major advantages; in fact, he’s only been submitted once … and that was in his Octagon debut. The math is simple to me: Oliveira’s only realistic path to victory is a submission, and Holloway is more than equipped to neutralize it while out-boxing him over distance.
Holloway’s volume striking and cardio make him one of the toughest fighters to keep off the scorecards. Oliveira does have power and creativity, but he leaves openings when he overcommits. Holloway thrives against aggressive opponents who rely on chaos — he excels in controlling range, mixing feints and forcing mistakes.
Simply put, Holloway is the safer, more technical fighter in this matchup.
What could go wrong?
Oliveira is a world-class submission artist, and if Holloway makes a critical error or underestimates the danger on the ground, the fight could end in a tap. What’s more, Holloway could have an off night or struggle with Oliveira’s unpredictability. While I don’t expect it, the volatility of a fast, aggressive fighter like Oliveira always carries risk.
Still, given their styles, Holloway’s current form at Lightweight and his sneaky power, taking Holloway’s moneyline at -220 looks like one of UFC 326’s most reliable plays.
- Max Holloway To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +165
- Max Holloway To Win By Submission: +1200
- Max Holloway To Win By Decision: +200
- Charles Oliveira To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +800
- Charles Oliveira by Submission: +320
- Charles Oliveira To Win By Decision: +1200
