Waldo Cortes-Acosta (often called “Salsa Boy”) is heavily favored to beat Derrick Lewis at UFC 324 on January 24, 2026, in Las Vegas. Here’s a breakdown of the key reasons why many analysts, bettors, and even some fighters see him pulling off the win in this heavyweight matchup on the main card:Youth, momentum, and current form — Cortes-Acosta is 34 and riding a strong wave in the UFC heavyweight division. He’s ranked #5, with a 16-2 record overall and has been very active and dominant recently. He’s coming off consistent wins, including decisions and finishes that showcase his improving skills. In contrast, Lewis is 40 years old, with a 29-12-1 NC record, and has had more inconsistent performances lately—mixing big knockouts with losses and long layoffs. Age catches up in heavyweight, especially with Lewis’s wear and tear from years of wars.
Technical edge and style matchup — This is often described as a classic contrast: disciplined boxing, footwork, and structure vs. chaos and one-punch power. Cortes-Acosta brings better striking accuracy (around 48%), solid defense (55%), and improved fight IQ—he’s not just a brawler. He can use his 6’4″ frame, reach, and movement to pick Lewis apart at range, avoid the big bombs, and potentially wear him down over rounds. Lewis relies heavily on his knockout power (most in UFC history), but his output can be low, and he tires if fights go long or if opponents don’t stand in front of him to get hit.
Betting odds and predictions reflect confidence in Waldo — He’s a strong favorite (around -330 in some lines), meaning bookmakers see him winning about 77% of the time based on models and public money. Tapology fan predictions lean heavily his way (69% for Cortes-Acosta vs. 31% for Lewis). Analysts highlight Waldo’s discipline as the key to neutralizing Lewis’s wild swings and low-volume style.
Preparation and mindset — Waldo has been vocal and confident, even predicting a quick KO (under 40 seconds in some comments) and eyeing bigger fights after. He’s prepared for Lewis’s tricks (like potential fouls or mind games) and seems locked in. Lewis has said he’s just happy to get a fight after begging for one, which might suggest he’s not at peak motivation or sharpness.
That said, never count out Derrick Lewis entirely—he’s the ultimate boom-or-bust guy with devastating power in either hand, and one clean shot can end it instantly, no matter how technical the opponent is. Heavyweight is unpredictable, and Lewis has upset favorites before.
But on paper and based on recent trends, Waldo Cortes-Acosta has the tools, youth, activity, and stylistic advantages to come out on top—likely by decision or late stoppage if he keeps it technical. Should be a fun clash!
