Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to the Paramount+ network for its latest and greatest numbered event, UFC 326: “Holloway vs. Oliveira 2.” As the name would suggest, UFC 326 is headlined by the rematch between former featherweight champion, Max Holloway, and ex-lightweight titleholder, Charles Oliveira. “Blessed” will be defending his “BMF” belt while “Do Bronxs” will be looking to avenge his UFC Saskatoon loss to the Hawaiian, which took place back in summer 2015.
That’s not all.
Who wins and who loses? Let’s figure that out below.
155 lbs.: BMF Champion Max “Blessed” Holloway (27-8) vs. Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveira (36-11, 1 NC)
Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira first went to war atop the UFC Saskatoon fight card back in 2015 — as featherweights — and we didn’t know what we had at the time. While we recognized both parties as legit prospects with bright futures, I don’t think anyone could have predicted their hall-of-fame careers, which include 46 finishes, 34 post-fight performance bonuses, and 11 “Fight of the Night” honors. Oliveira would set sail for lightweight long before Holloway, who abandoned the 145-pound weight class after suffering the first knockout of his career opposite Ilia Topuria. Any questions about the Hawaiian’s post-Topuria durability were answered in a commanding performance opposite Dustin Poirier in their UFC 318 rematch last summer. Similarly, Oliveira was able to bounce back from his Topuria knockout to pretzel Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Rio back in October.
If you look at Holloway’s overall game, it’s difficult to find a weakness to expose. His only losses over the last seven years have come against Topuria and Alex Volkanovski, two elite champions. Outside of that, he’s been in compete control. “Blessed” has the cardio to go 10 rounds, lands more than seven significant strikes per minute, and defends 83-percent of the takedowns that come his way. He also holds the UFC record for significant strikes landed (3655) and total strikes landed (3907). Just for some perspective, second place in both categories trails by well over 1000 strikes. Conversely, Oliveira holds a few records of his own, including most finishes (21) and most submissions (17). Holloway has only been submitted once in his pro career and that came in a loss to Poirier back in 2012. Not that it matters, because I don’t think you can paint this fight as the traditional “striker vs. grappler” showdown because both fighters are far more complete than just a single label.
That said, I wouldn’t count on Oliveira staying competitive in the standup. Holloway doesn’t have traditional knockout power, instead relying on volume and accuracy to systematically break his opponents down over the long haul. Oliveira can disrupt that rhythm with takedowns and cage work, I just have a hard time envisioning a scenario where “Do Bronxs” is able to cut off the cage and keep “Blessed” from using his superior footwork. The real question for me is where or not Holloway is able to secure the finish. I would not be surprised to see Oliveira crumble in the second half of the fight, then turtle until the ref intervenes. Regardless of how it ends, expect this headlining affair to be a contender for “Fight of the Night” when all is said and done.
Prediction: Holloway def. Oliveira by technical knockout
185 lbs.: Reinier “The Dutch Knight” de Ridder (21-3) vs. Caio “The Natural” Borralho (17-2, 1 NC)
Reinier de Ridder and Caio Borralho are back, in what is without a doubt a pivotal fight for both combatants. Last summer, De Ridder and Borralho were neck-and-neck in the division title chase and perhaps one victory away from a crack at the crown. Then came a pair of losses, with De Ridder falling to Brendan Allen and Borralho coming up short against Nassourdine Imavov. Safe to say a loss at UFC 326 will eliminate one of these two middleweights from the 185-pound title picture. It will also lend credence to those “fraud check” claims online. “The Dutch Knight” is being called Reinier de Quitter for his performance against Allen while Borralho was reassigned to the “Fighting Frauds” fight team. That’s just the nature of the beast these days, you’re always one loss away from being garbage in the eyes of fickle fans.
De Ridder is not much of a striker and never was, landing a measly 2.20 significant strikes per minute. That said, he makes up for that deficiency with a dangerous ground game, complemented by his tremendous size. De Ridder stands 6’4” and sports a 78” reach, one of the reasons he was able to bully wrestling phenom Bo Nickal in their UFC Des Moines showdown. Borralho is more well rounded and has knockout power, though he’s only been able to score two finishes in eight trips to the Octagon — two of which returned a “Performance of the Night” bonus. This co-main event showdown is not unlike the “BMF” headliner. Borralho will be looking to play Dutch Whac-A-Mole and keep himself off the ground, while De Ridder will be trying his damndest to smother and cover the Brazilian like an order of Denny’s hash browns.
Assuming De Ridder’s cardio holds up, which it should in a three-round contest, I can see him squeaking past “The Natural” for a close decision victory, sort of like he did with former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker. Borralho has looked spectacular outside of his Imavov loss, but probably because he was facing the likes of Paul Craig and Makhmud Muradov, who are no longer with the promotion.
Prediction: De Ridder def. Borralho by decision
135 lbs.: Rob Font (22-9) vs. Raul “El Nino Problema” Rosas Jr. (11-1)
Rob Font, at one time, was ranked in the Top 5 of the bantamweight division — ahead of Merab Dvalishvili — and perhaps one victory away from a 135-pound title shot. Then came a loss to Jose Aldo in the UFC Vegas 44 main event, part of a 3-5 slide across his next eight that pushed him out of both the division title chase and the bantamweight Top 10. In addition, seven of those eight fights have gone to the scorecards in what were mostly forgettable affairs. With Font turning 39 in June, there’s probably not much of a future for the Bostonian outside of mid-card filler, or the occasional stepping stone for an up-and-coming talent.
Like Raul Rosas Jr., who is slowly working his way up the 135-pound ladder.
Rosas jr. made headlines for joining Dana White’s “Contender Series” at age 17, then becoming the youngest fighter to ever debut (and win) inside the hallowed Octagon. A tepid decision loss to Christian Rodriguez at UFC 287 took some of the shine off the promotion’s new toy; but to his credit, “El Niño Problema” roared back with four straight wins, two of which he ended before the final frame. I’m not crazy about his one-year layoff due to injuries, but I don’t think it matters at his age. Font is a durable competitor with big-game experience and should provide a level of striking that will keep Rosas Jr. in grappling mode. That makes this fight a battle of conditioning and a test of Font’s takedown defense — which isn’t great. He was taken down over 20 times in his last five appearances and is facing a faster, more agile competitor who averages four takedowns per fight.
Font has only been submitted one time in his career and that was by guillotine choke nearly a decade ago. I think he’s too savvy to get tapped in this weekend’s showdown, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to do enough to keep Rosas Jr. from mugging and slugging his way to a sweep on the judges’s scorecards.
Prediction: Rosas Jr. def. Font by decision
155 lbs.: Drew Dober (28-15, 1 NC) vs. Michael “The Menace” Johnson (24-19)
Michael Johnson will make his return to the Octagon after getting swept up in the betting nonsense that surrounded the UFC 324 fight card back in January. I don’t think Johnson — a UFC veteran of 15 years — is the type of fighter who will carry that baggage into his next fight. In addition, “The Menace” has quietly put together a three-fight win streak and captured four of his last five. The bad news is, Johnson also has 19 losses and may be punching the clock at 39 years old. The former Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 12 finalist is a striker by trade and holds victories over lightweight mainstays Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza, just to name a few. Whether or not he adds Drew Dober to that illustrious list all depends on how well Johnson avoids the Bald Bull pounce-and-punch attack from the 37 year-old Nebraskan.
Dober has nine post-fight performance bonuses over the last eight years with five “Fight of the Night” honors. In addition, eight of his last 10 fights have ended by way of knockout. I’m not sure I understand his Gaethje-esque strategy, which has led to four losses in his last six outings; but he’s one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster and those $50,000 performance bonuses start to add up. Hopefully he gets to enjoy some of it before his brain turns to mush. I would expect him to employ a similar offense against “The Menace” with the intent to overwhelm or land first, which may be a fool’s errand when you consider Johnson’s speed — even at 39 year’s old. Dober’s last four losses have all ended by way of knockout which suggests the aggression is still there but the chin is not, which is why I’m picking Johnson for the early finish.
Prediction: Johnson def. Dober by knockout
185 lbs.: Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira (15-2) vs. Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (18-6)
Brunno Ferreira and Gregory Rodrigues first went to war as part of the UFC 283 pay-per-view (PPV) back in early 2023, with Ferreira ending the bout by way of first-round knockout. Not a bad way to debut for the world’s preeminent fight promotion, which quickly invited him back the following July — with a ton of hype — only for Ferreira to get slept himself by Nursulton Ruziboev at UFC Vegas 76.
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Ferreira would go on to win five of his next six and is currently riding a three-fight win streak, with two of those victories ending by way of submission. “The Hulk” wasn’t able to finish Marvin Vettori at UFC 323; but then again, nobody can, so that’s not really a knock on the Brazilian. Similarly, Rodrigues would go on to win five of his next six and is coming off a decision victory over Roman Kopylov at UFC 322.
In addition to both hailing from Brazil, Rodrigues and Ferreira are roughly the same age and employ a similar rock ‘em, sock ‘em offense. You can argue that “Robocop” is a little more complete as a fighter but that probably doesn’t matter here. Both combatants are going to march forward and swing for the fences until somebody gets folded like a Lambo-covered Trapper Keeper.
Expect history to repeat itself in “Sin City.”
Prediction: Ferreira def. Rodrigues by knockout
