UFC Mexico odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Moreno vs. Kavanagh

UFC Mexico goes down this weekend (Sat., Feb. 28, 2026) in Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico (unless things get any worse in that country between now and then). This event is, of course, broadcast on Paramount+. Paramount has delivered earlier finish times and great pacing so far, but the standard of cards have left a lot to be desired. This might be the worst of the bunch, when it comes to 2026’s less than thrilling line-ups.

The main event is Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh. Moreno was supposed to be fighting Asu Almabayev, on home soil, but the Kazakh fighter had to withdraw due to injury. The far more inexperienced (but also far more fun) Kavanagh took his place a few weeks ago.

UFC Mexico’s co-main is Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez in the Bantamweight division. Rounding out the main card is Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green, Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes, Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas and Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pachecho.

The featured “Prelims” fight is Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Medina. The “Prelims” also have Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson and Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Mexico Main Card Money Line Odds

Brandon Moreno (-218) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (+180)

I’m pretty surprised to see this lines as close as they are. I thought Kavanagh, coming off a TKO loss and coming in on short notice, would be a much larger underdog. One explanation for this might be a little bit of better fatigue when it comes to Moreno. Kavanagh is like a shiny new toy and I think a lot of folks are hoping for more fresh blood at the top of the Flyweight division.

I think this is too much too soon for the Englishman, though. Moreno lives for these main event moments and I don’t think he’s going to lose in Mexico City this weekend. He’s massively more experienced than Kavanagh and only six years older than him. He’s also bigger; Kavanagh is a very small Flyweight.

In this situation it’s tempting to say that Kavanagh is fighting without any pressure, being that he’s the replacement fighter and he’s fighting in Moreno’s backyard. However, given how his last fight ended, I think he’s under considerable pressure to show that he is the blue chip prospect we thought he was. That would be true in whatever fight he took next. But he’s now being forced to prove that, while also trying to prove he’s one of the top five Flyweights in the world. I think that’s just too big a task for the relative newcomer.

Best bet: Brandon Moreno moneyline (-218)

Marlon Vera (+235) vs. David Martinez (-290)

Vera lost a split decision to Aiemann Zahabi in October. That was his third loss in a row, following unanimous decision defeats to Deiveson Figueiredo and Sean O’Malley. That O’Malley fight was a title fight and a rematch, as well as a hilarious commentary on the state of the Bantamweight division in early 2024. Vera just turned 33 and he’s 15-10 in the Octagon.

Martinez was really impressive against Font and I can see him putting in the same kind of performance here, using his speed and athleticism to constantly harass the older and slower Vera. Vera lost the Zahabi fight due, in part, to how much more active Zahabi was.

This fight is likely going to be just a kickboxing match and, at this stage in their careers, that benefits Martinez. Martinez is giving up some size on Vera, but I’d rather be the shorter guy than the older guy.

There’s not a lot of value I can find in this fight. I like Martinez, but his moneyline sucks. I think this goes the distance, but the over is even worse. And I don’t like the point spread because I’m not totally sure if Martinez can blank the crafty vet on the scorecards (the loss to Zahabi was a split, remember).

For my best bet I’m going to go with Martinez moneylne (finish only), since the only thing I don’t think will happen is Vera getting a finish. This is a pretty chintzy bet, but there’s just not a lot I like here.

Best bet: David Martinz moneyline (finish only) (-105)

Daniel Zellhuber (-500) vs. King Green (+380)

Zellhuber came into the UFC as a hot prospect, earning a decision on Contender Series in 2021. He was then immediately upset by Trey Ogden in his proper debut (as a -390 favorite). He won his next three bouts, but then dropped a split decision to Esteban Ribovics in what was many’s Fight of the Year for 2024. Last year he made just one appearance, getting outworked by Michael Johnson for a decision loss.

Zellhuber is a really puzzling character. He seems to fight to the level of his opponent and also doesn’t fight with a lot of urgency. I think it’s very easy to believe that this fight ends up looking a lot like the Johnson fight with Zellhuber starting slow and falling behind on the striking exchanges and then not doing enough to cancel it out.

Green is a largely spent force, but he showed in his last fight that he still has some gas in the tank. Green’s chin might be a little questionable, too, but Zellhuber hasn’t cleanly knocked someone out since he was on the Mexican regional scene.

I think Zellhuber does end up winning this, though I doubt he does so very impressively. I think this will be a back and forth fight where it feels like Zellhuber could do more but he fails to do so. If King were more dangerous, at this stage of his career, I’d be tempted to take him here.

The round total is 2.5 and I think we’re going over that, to a decision. That’s mainly due to my assumption that Zellhuber can’t stop King.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-135)

Edgar Chairez (-325) vs. Felipe Bunes (+260)

Chairez has been out for around a year (he’s one of many fighters on this card who have been inactive for one or even two years). In his last fight he submitted CJ Vergara in the first round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus. Prior to that he lost a hard fought decision to Joshua Van in Sphere. He’s 2-2 (1 NC) in UFC, with his other loss being to Tatsura Taira in his promotion debut (which was also a decision).

Chairez has looked decent whenever not fighting someone significant in the division. His exposure to Van and Taira early on means his stat sheet isn’t very nice to look at. He’s landed just 3.44 sig. strikes a minute while absorbing 5.08. The current Flyweight champ deserves the blame for that, though. He pasted Chairez with 118 sig. strikes and took 79 in return.

Chairez looked really awesome in his last fight, scoring a knockdown and then a quick submission. That was also in Mexico City. I think he’s capable of a similar ending in this fight.

Bunes doesn’t look it, but he’s 36 years-old. That’s seven years older than Chairez, who—ironically—looks much older. I think Chairez is going to find a lot of success on the feet with Bunes, who is not a very comfortable striker.

Bunes also has a negative striking differential, though it’s more extreme. Van ‘only’ landed 83 sig. strikes on him, but that’s because the 83rd one was met with a referee waving off the fight. With me believing that Chairez can win this by either striking or submissions (or a combo of both like last time), I’ll take him minus the points.

Best bet: Edgar Chairez -7.5 (-150)

Imanol Rodriguez (-440) vs. Kevin Borjas (+340)

Rodriguez put away Roque Conceicao with an uppercut on Contender Series in October. Before that he was on The Ultimate Fighter 33. And before that he was in Fury FC. He’s 26 with a 6-0 record. He’s used the uppercut a few times over that undefeated run.

Borjas lost a decision to Sumudaerji in August. Before that he beat Ronaldo Rodriguez by unanimous decision (during UFC’s previous trip to Mexico). That win came after back-to-back losses to Alessandro Costa and Joshua Van.

Borjas got totally boxed up by Sumudaerji last time out. He couldn’t get takedowns on the Chinese fighter and was stuck having to eat strikes on the feet. He ended up absorbing 73 sig. strikes and landing just 16 of his own.

Borjas’ boxing looked great in the Rodriguez fight, though, where he dropped him twice and outlanded him 83-64 on sig. strikes.

So who wins this fight might depend on which Borjas shows up. If he can land some decent shots on the feet and do something with his wrestling (Rodriguez’s takedown defense looked pretty suspect in the regional fight of his I watched), then Borjas might be the big underdog on this card who causes an upset.

I’ll take him here, since none of the other big underdogs here (of which there are many) are speaking to me.

Best bet: Kevin Borjas +3.5 (+160)

Santiago Luna (-575) vs. Angel Pacheco (+425)

Pacheco turned 34 in January. He’s 7-3 and he’s been on the shelf for two years. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Caolan Loughran. Before that he lost his Contender Series fight with Danny Silva, also by unanimous decision.

I’m quite high on Luna. He’s a ton of fun to watch. He packs a heck of a punch and he enjoys a good suplex. With Pacheco on the wrong side of thirty and being out for two years, this seems like a fight designed to give Luna another W and make the Mexican crowd go wild. I don’t see any reason to believe that won’t happen.

I like Luna’s chances of landing a big punch early and this one being done inside one and a half rounds.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-105)

UFC Mexico ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Jose Medina (+455) vs. Ryan Gandra (-625)

Gandra scored a quick finish on Contender Series in August. Before that he was fighting on LFA’s Brazilian cards. He’s 30 with just an 8-1 record. He has a pair of pro boxing wins, too.

Gandra will be testing Medina’s use of the Homer Simpson school of boxing defense here. In his early UFC fights Medina seemed to believe he could make someone gas out drawing as many of their punches to his skull as possible. I would hope he’s decided to move away from that approach.

Gandra put out a ton of volume in his Contender Series fight. He’ll likely hope to do that again. I’m struggling to see Medina preventing him from landing punches at will. The big question for me, though, is if Medina’s chin will hold up like it did in the Reese fight. Gandra has fast hands and he throws in combinations, so I’m thinking he might be able to land enough, in quick succession, to have the referee want to step in at some point.

Because of that, I’ll take the under.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-125)

Macy Chiasson (+150) vs. Ailin Perez (-180)

Chiasson came in heavy for her last fight, in October, with Yana Santos. That seemed to rile up Santos, who was able to ride out a unanimous decision win over the former TUF champ. That was Chiasson’s second loss in a row. She was defeated by Ketlen Vieira last May.

This is one of those fights where I wish I could wait until after the weigh-ins to pick my winner, since both ladies have struggled on the scales. If both are in tip top shape, my pick is Perez, due to her wrestling.

Chiasson’s wrestling has been fine in UFC, but I think Perez is a cut above her. Chiasson will have a lot of size on Perez, but that size will be in height and reach (by over five inches in both departments), not in muscle. Perez, who is famously thick, might be stronger in the wrestling exchanges and that could lead to her being on top when it counts. She’s also more aggressive, so I think that will help her on the judges’ scorecards, too.

Best bet: Ailin Perez moneyline (-180)

Cristian Quinonez (-675) vs. Kris Moutinho (+490)

Quinonez hasn‘t fought since February 2024. His last appearance was a submission loss to Raoni Barcelos. A year early he was submitted by Kyung Ho Kang. He’s 1-2 in UFC with his win being against Khalid Taha in 2022.

Moutinho’s striking numbers are a horror show. In three UFC bouts he has absorbed 14.68 sig. strikes a minute and has shown just 29 percent defense against sig. strikes. Quinonez is not a power puncher, but you don’t have to be if your opponent is that hittable.

Moutinho’s ground game is untested in UFC (since all his opponents have had an easy time just punching him in the face). It might be an area he can exploit against Quinonez, who is as average on the ground as he is on the feet.

I’m definitely wary of Quinonez being such a big favorite, especially given his long bout of inactivity. I’m not bold enough to pick the upset, though. Instead I’ll take the over on the very low 1.5 round total.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135)

Douglas Silva de Andrade (+190) vs. Javier Reyes (-230)

Silva de Andrade turned 40 last summer. He’s been with the promotion since 2014. He’s had 13 fights since then and is 7-6, with his activity really trailing off in the last few years. His last fight was in June, 2024, a unanimous decision loss to Miles John. His previous fight to that was in May, 2023, a unanimous decision win over Cody Stamann. Silva de Andrade’s other losses in the promotion are to Said Nurmagomedov, Lerone Murphy, Petr Yan, Rob Font and Zubaira Tukhugov.

Reyes is coming straight off Contender Series. He won by TKO in September. He was in LFA before that, where he went 2-2. He headlined LFA 208 (losing to Chris Mecate) and 210 beating Lance Lawrence).

Silva de Andrade has never been a very high output guy. But as he’s gotten older that lack of offense has started to be paired with a more leaky defense. In his last fight he landed just 36 sig. strikes and absorbed 50. Against the much younger and longer Reyes, I’m thinking he’ll be on the wrong end of another big striking differential.

Reyes is very aggressive and won his Contender Series fight with brutal knees. I don’t think he’ll be able to trap the veteran Silva de Andrade in his Thai clinch for long enough to land a bunch of unanswered knees, but I do think he’ll just have too much speed and energy for the 40 year old.

The round total for this one is 2.5. That’s because Vegas respects the Brazilian’s durability. And so do I! I’ll take the over here, believing that Reyes won’t be able to hand the vet only his third ever stoppage loss in 36 fights.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-125)

Ernesta Kareckaite (-270) vs. Sofia Montenegro (+220)

Kareckaite eked out a win over Nicolle Caliari back in January, 2025. That was her first proper UFC win, having lost her debut to Dione Barbosa. She earned her place on the big show after beating Carli Judice by split decision on Contender Series. She’s 6-1-1 as a pro.

Montenegro is coming off Contender Series where she lost a war with Jeisla Chaves. That dropped her to 6-2

Kareckaite has used her lanky striking style to chip her way past some other raw fighters. While doing so she’s landed a pretty impressive 7.38 sig. strikes a minute (though nothing with much power behind it). She out struck Caliari 95-67 on sig. strikes. She’ll have four inches of reach over Montenegro and that’s going to help her a lot here. She had a big reach advantage on Caliari, too.

Kareckaite’s weakness is everything but volume striking. Montenegro seems to be a willing wrestler. Kareckaite’s size advantage, and the fact she defended nine of eleven takedown attempts from Barbosa (a former Olympics judoka), makes me think she’ll be able to stay on her feet for most this fight, though.

Best bet: Ernesta Kareckaite moneyline (-270)

Erik Silva (+390) vs. Francis Marshall (-520)

Silva has struggled to stay healthy and active since joining UFC off Contender Series in 2022. He’s also trying to halt a two fight losing streak at UFC Mexico. The 37 year-old has been out for over a year after suffering a leg injury in a fight with Muhammad Naimov. That fight came after a two year hiatus following his submission loss to TJ Brown.

Marshall lost a split decision to Mairon Santos almost a year ago. I scored that fight for Marshall, as did many others. Before that he took a split decision over Dennis Buzukja. He’s now 2-3 in UFC, with his losses including Isaac Dulgarian and William Gomis.

I don’t like that both these guys are coming off such long hiatuses. It makes it hard to read just how effective either might be. All things being equal Marshall is the better all around fighter so I can see why he’s one of the many big favorites on the card. The age factor is also a big deal here, with Marshall being in his prime and the recently injured Silva being far past it.

The round total for this is 1.5 and I like the over. The ring rust might lead to a slow start from both men.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-135)

Wes Schultz (+210) vs. Damian Pinas (-258)

Schultz Suloev stretched Marion Mingaj to earn a contract on Contender Series in October. That was his second appearance on that feeder show. His first was a second round TKO loss to Mansur Abdul-Malik. He’s 29 years-old and 8-2. His other pro loss was to Dylan Budka, by decision, in 2023. Budka went 0-3 in UFC and was released late last year.

Pinas is also fresh off Contender Series. He won by KO, in just under two minutes, during his appearance in September. He’s 23 and fights out of Nova Unao. He’s 8-1 with a DQ loss to journeyman Italo Gomes (most recently of UAE Warriors and Cage Warriors).

This is a striker vs. grappler bout. I think Pinas probably gets enough looks on the ground at Nova Unao to have some half decent, at least, grappling defense. I’ve watched a little of his striking and he throws a lot of heat straight down the middle. That power is probably what has him as the favorite here.

I lean Pinas in the match-up, but with his odds as they are, I’ll play the under. That also covers me in case Schultz is that guy on the ground and is able to drag Pinas down early and get him in something like a twister.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-200)

UFC Mexico Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …

Brandon Moreno to win by submission (+350)

I think Moreno is a lot better than Lone’er Kavanagh is right now. I think Moreno will be able to avoid Kavanagh’s striking and force the youngster into a multi-dimensional MMA match. Kavanagh is untested on the ground, but I don’t think he’s on Moreno’s level there.

Edgar Chairez to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+360)

Chairez has been given a lay-up here and I don’t think he’ll disappoint on home soil. Bunes is not very good on the feet. Chairez did a club and sub last time. This time I think he’ll need just the club.

Two fight parlay: Kevin Borjas and King Green (+1916)

I think Borjas is a live dog against the Contender Series grad Imanol Rodriguez. Borjas was awful in his last fight, but he’s shown us he can box and if he can exploit a potential wrestling weakness for Rodriguez then he’s got a great chance of causing an upset. The bet on Green here is more of a fade on Zellhuber, who has shown a few times that he can get swallowed up by the moment and not win the fights he’s supposed to.

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