Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Featherweight: Kevin Vallejos (-260) vs. Giga Chikadze (+196)
Best Win for Vallejos? Danny Silva For Chikadze? Edson Barboza
Current Streak: Vallejos is 2-0 in the UFC, whereas Chikadze has lost two straight
X-Factor: Chikadze is 14 years older with far more miles on the tracks
How these two match up: This should be a lovely striking match, yet still a great clash of styles.
Vallejos is a great young talent rising up the Featherweight ranks. At 23 years of age, he follows in the mold of Ilia Topuria, a shorter boxer who builds powerful combinations in a really intelligent way. He’s a consistent pressure fighter, one who looks to draw offense from his opponent and then counter in a big way.
Chikadze, conversely, is a decorated kickboxer. He likes to pick at his opponents from long range with powerful kicks and straight punches, which can really wear down opposition as they try to find their way to the Georgian standout.
I’m really torn on this one. On one hand, Vallejos is obviously the man on the rise, and he has really great fundamentals. If you take a long term perspective and think about two years from now, he’s very obviously going to be in a better position than Chikadze. At the same time, Chikadze gave Arnold Allen hell just two fights ago. Allen barely won that fight, and he’s a genuinely elite contender and great boxer himself.
I’m going to side with the veteran here. Chikadze won’t have to worry about the takedown threat, and this fight is only three rounds. He should be able to blast kicks and keep his feet moving well enough to win at least two rounds, and those kicks should take some of the sting off Vallejos’ punches when he does start landing.
Prediction: Chikadze via decision
Middleweight: Cesar Almeida (+126) vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk (-162)
Best Win for Almeida? Abdul Razak Alhassan For Oleksiejczuk? Tom Breese
Current Streak: Almeida has won two in a row, while Oleksiejczuk debuts having won four straight
X-Factor: Once more, we’re looking at a huge age difference, as Oleksiejczuk is 12 years younger
How these two match up: This is an under-the-radar scrap that should be great fun.
Almeida is a decorated striker who only recently transitioned to mixed martial arts (MMA). He’s still figuring out the ground aspects of fighting, but the Brazilian knockout artist definitely has that explosive fluidity in his strikes that really stands out. Oleksiejczuk — younger brother of long-time UFC veteran, Michael Oleksiejczuk — is an aggressive boxer with better ground skills than his brother. Though this is his Octagon debut, Oleksiejczuk has fought a really good level of competition, and he’s only lost once in the last five years.
In the prediction above, I backed Chikadze in a similar matchup because he didn’t have to be concerned with Vallejos’ ground game. Conversely, I think Oleksiejczuk will mix it up well. He has the pressure boxing and takedowns to really throw off Almeida’s game, as well as the general advantage of being a younger talent.
He’ll have to keep his chin tucked the whole time, but he should have an advantage overall.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via decision
Featherweight: Morgan Charriere (+106) vs. Melquizael Costa (-136)
Best Win for Charriere? Nate Landwehr For Costa? Julian Erosa
Current Streak: Charreire won his last bout, while Costa has won four straight
X-Factor: This is Costa’s fourth fight of 2025
How these two match up: A pair of very skilled Featherweights just outside the rankings with a good deal of experience? This feels like a guaranteed banger.
Charriere is a former Cage Warriors champion. He’s well-rounded, but really excels on the feet, making use of powerful range kicks to help line up heavy counter connections. He’s not the most high-volume fighter on the roster, but he sets a good pace for a counter puncher. Costa, conversely, is a non-stop numbers fighter. He likes to work at the edge of his kicking range, but he’s really proven himself dangerous and active in all ranges.
The question here is whether Charriere’s boxing and power edges overcome Costa’s volume, and the tight odds help demonstrate the answer. I could see Charriere timing Costa, interrupting his shots and really punishing his activity with impactful blows. Simultaneously, it’s easy to imagine Costa winning on the scorecards just by throwing more shots, which is so often the case.
Ultimately, I’m siding with the Brazilian to sway the judges. He’s proven himself durable in multiple bloody scraps this year, and it’s not like he’s throwing softballs. In addition, Charriere will have to press through Costa’s kicks to maximize his boxing edge, and that feels like a tall ask from a man who usually does his best work from the outside.
Prediction: Costa via decision
Heavyweight: Kennedy Nzechukwu (-156) vs. Marcus Buchecha (+122)
Best Win for Nzechukwu? Ion Cutelaba For Buchecha? Amir Aliakbari
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: This fight hinges entirely on the takedown
How these two match up: A clear striker vs. grappler match will kick off the main card.
Nzechukwu jumped to Heavyweight after a couple consecutive losses at 205 pounds, but it’s not like “African Savage” is undersized. Standing at 6’5” with an 83-inch reach, Nzechukwu is still a physical force with serious power behind his punches. Buchecha, conversely, is the career Heavyweight, yet will be the smaller man. A genuine master of jiu-jitsu, the rest of Buchecha’s MMA game is thoroughly average.
This is going to be extremely definitive in one direction or the other. If Nzechukwu stops the shot, he’s going to chew up Buchecha on the feet, and that man hits hard. Conversely, Buchecha will dominate if able to gain top position, so a quick tapout is very possible as well.
Historically, Nzechukwu is quite difficult to take down, and Buchecha’s wrestling is very inconsistent. After Buchecha’s uninspired debut, I’ll trust the more proven UFC fighter to keep this one standing and land his power shots. There’s a chance that Buchecha shows up in better shape without such a long layoff, but it’s just hard to have confidence in him right now.
Prediction: Nzechukwu via knockout
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 60-34
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